Three Quantitive Forecasting

Identify three qualitative forecasting methods and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. 1. Jury of Executive Panel: Executive panel forecasting uses the expertise of experienced upper managers from various aspects of the business to predict forecast. Executives from areas such as sales, financial, operations and production get together to predict trends, sales, and demand estimates for their particular area of expertise. Advantages of Jury of executive include: a. Seasoned professional provides their opinion b.The responses provided are quick since executives are apart of the organization c. Vested interest in the company Disadvantages include: a. Group think (individual managers may go with the group instead of their own opinion) b. Tendency to go along with the #1 man/woman c. 2. Consumer Survey: This forecasting is focused directly to the consumer. A series of questions are presented to the consumer about a particular product or service. I have been asked to participate in numerous consumer surveys about a product or service that I have used.The survey may used to decide if a product should be created, changed or discontinued. It consist of a sampling consumer to determine demand/spending trends. Advantages of Consumer Survey include: a. Information comes directly from the source (the customer) b. Asks the customer their intention. c. Interviews done in person, although they can be time consuming, allows the interviewer to see the respondents body languages. Can probe for deeper questions Disadvantages of consumer survey include: a.Consumers may not be entirely truthful b. Interviews that are done in person can be time consuming. c. Mailing and telephone, although they take less time and money, do not allow for probing questions 3. Delphi Method: Delphi method of forecasting was developed by RAND in 1950 with the original intent to focus on how technology affected warfare. The Delphi method is made up of a panel of experts who answers a series of care fully designed questions. In addition to experts, Delphi method also uses staff and respondents.Delphi method requires anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation of respondents (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Because of anonymity, individuals are free to express their opinions without judgment or peer-pressure. Iteration gives them the opportunity to rethink their response after further consideration. Controlled feedback provides respondents with the opinion of the other members of the panel. Advantages of Delphi include: a. Anonymity: It allows respondents to freely give their opinion without fear of the other participants knowing who they are. b.It is conducted in writing so it allows the participants to respond at their convenience within a prescribed period of time. c. Is focused on the current issue only. Disadvantages of Delphi include: a. Anonymity is also a disadvantage. Because the other participants do not know who makes the opinion, there is no ownersh ip for the opinion given. Experts may not be fully committed as they will not receive credit for their opinion. b. Can be time consuming as it requires iterations. c. Requires participants’ time and commitment so some participants may back out before the study is completed.

Macbeth Essy

Hayley Von Oepen Hour: 1 English 11 Guilt Can Affect Your Fate Macbeth was a manipulative man. He wasn't like this before, but his wife told him that he was a coward and that there would be no way he could be king because he was too weak. So basically, Lady Macbeth had to help him plot to kill the king. Macbeth's fate was to be king; however his best friend Banquds children were supposed to be king after Macbeth. Macbeth did not like this and plotted to kill everyone in his path, thus causing his guilty conscience. A guilty conscience can get in the way of things leading to fate, and fate may not be how one wants it to be.Shakespeare's play Macbeth shows many themes. One of the themes is the role of a guilty conscience. Macbeth's guilt builds up after everyone he kills. For example, when Macbeth finds out that he isn't the only one who will be king he hires thieves to kill Banquo and his children. When Macbeth was having dinner with the Lords, he kept seeing Banquds ghost and was sca red. Lady Macbeth told everyone that he does this all the time and that he has done this since he was a little boy. She says, â€Å"Things without all remedy / Should be without regard. What's done is done† (3. 2. 3-14).Lady Macbeth is saying that undoing the past cannot be done and disregarding past deeds should be done. Think of the present and the future to come. Macbeth is furious that he won't remain king. He says, â€Å"For Banquds issue have I filed my mind; / For them the gracious Duncan have I murdered, / Put rancor's in the vessel of my peace / Only for them, and mine eternal Jewel / Given to the common enemy of man / To make them kings, the seeds of Banquds kings† (3. 1. 7()-75). Macbeth basically is saying that he is angry that Banquds kids get to be king and his do not. He did everything he could to be king and realizes that it was all for nothing.He did this all for Banquds kids, or Banquds seeds as quoted above. Macbeth was talking to one of his servants and his servant said, â€Å"It is the cry of a woman my good Lord†¦ / The queen is dead† (5. 5. 1()-11). Macbeth's guilt grows more when his wife dies even if he doesn't show it. He realizes that he shouldVe been there for his wife and that she shouldVe been here in the hereafter. And so, the role of a guilty conscience can get into the way of fate. Unfortunately for Macbeth, he realizes it too late and everyone he has loved was killed either by im or suicide.Also, in the end, once he killed so many people, Macbeth realizes he should have let fate take its course thus giving him a guilty conscience. Another one of Shakespeare's themes is Fate vs. Free Will. When the witches told Macbeth he is destined to be king, that it is his fate. Macbeth states smugly and powerfully, â€Å"If chance shall crown me without my stir† (1. 3. 158); which means that if he is the one who should have the crown, King Duncan would give it to him without Macbeth having to do anything ra sh. When he isn't crowned, Macbeth decides he must kill Duncan.Also meaning, that Macbeth is following his â€Å"chance† and the chance is his me to the utterance! † (3. 1 . 70-71). This basically means that Macbeth is challenged by his fate. The words â€Å"come fate† means to let the fate come. So basically, Macbeth is challenging fate toa fight to a bitter end. At the beginning of the supper that Macbeth had with the great Lords, he told the murderers that it will not only be Banquo that dies, but his son, Fleance, will die too. He tells them â€Å"†¦ must embrace the fate / Of that dark hour† (3. 1 . 136-137). Here â€Å"fate† means a terrible thing that is going to happen.And because it is Macbeth, it is going to happen. As it turns out, Fleance escapes this particular â€Å"fate† and lives. In conclusion, Fate vs. Free will is basically the cause of a guilty conscience. Macbeth's fate to stay king, made him lose everything, includi ng his wife and his best friend. Macbeth's free will said that he could change the fate that the witches prophesied to him. However, Macbeth did not change his fate, and even if he tried to it wouldVe been too late because of all the guilt he has obtained. To sum it up, a guilty conscience and fate can lead to bad consequences, even if they risk your life in the end.

Final exam quesiton 2 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Final exam quesiton 2 - Essay Example Moreover, this resulted in the decline of the importance of family that was considered sacred in the Indian traditions. There was also a decrease in the importance of the family, whereby young people began making important life choices, which were previously made by their parents. For instance, parents made decisions such as who to marry, and where to work for their Indian children. The world war two also played an important social role in that, the war set families in motion, dragging them out of farmsteads and out of small towns and relocating them into large urban areas such as New Delhi.  Were it not for this war, many Indians would still be living in rural areas and some high levels of developments would not have been attained. Moreover, in my opinion, the Second World War affected greatly the racial discrimination, which existed prior to the war. This happened in that the different races, people of Indian origin and Americans integrated in the war for a common objective. Previously, the marines excluded the Indians where they were used as

Law of Patents Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Law of Patents - Case Study Example Purchasing Associates, Inc. v Weitz, 13 NY2d 267, 269 (1963). It should be noted that federal courts will look to the state laws when interpreting the reasonableness of a covenant not to compete or a non competition clause. Thus the first question is where is Frothy Beer located The reason why the situs of Frothy Beer is important is because a reasonable inference of the facts indicates that part of the non-competition agreement states that jurisdiction of any dispute pursuant ot the agreement is within the United States. Judging by the information supplied, Frothy Beer is located in the United States. Because the headquarters of Awessa is located in Australia, Federal Court is the court of jurisdiction because of diversity of citizenship. Vaden v. Discover Bank --- S.Ct. ----, 2009 WL 578636 U.S. (2009). By way of example, if Frothy Beer was located in Virginia, then the federal courts would look to the state of Virginia codes in evaluating the non competition clause between Frothy and Eyus. ... Meissel v. Finley, 198 Va. 577, 579 (Va.Ct.App.1956) ("The possession of trade secrets and confidential information is an important consideration in testing the reasonableness of a restriction on competition.") (citing Stoneman v. Wilson, 169 Va. 239, 240 (Va.1937)). However, Paramount Termite Control Co., Inc. v. Rector, 238 Va. 171, 172 (Va.1989) notes that "Although often used as a justification for non-competition agreements, it is not necessary that the employees actually had acquired or possessed specific information that could be legally defined as confidential or a trade secret, ....")(internal quotations omitted). Here, the federal court would determine, in effect, whether Frothy Beer did or did not have any legitimate business interests worthy of protection. As a result, the district court's analysis of the restrictive covenant (here the non competition agreement) will likely be skewed by the fact that Eyus developed and applied for patents directly related to research and development of beer product within his first two years of employment at Awessa. II. While It Appears at First Blush That Awessa Can Enter into an agreement with U.S.B. Beer, all Environmental Issues in regards to the low carb beer production should first be resolved by Awessa before U.S.B. Beer enters into any transaction or memorandum of understanding. A patent may be awarded for either a product or a process: a product patent creates a monopoly over the manufacture, use and sale of product while a process patent creates a monopoly over the manufacture, use, and sale of a process. U.S. v. Studiengesellschaft Kohle, m.b.H. 670 F.2d

WHY RELIGION IS PROHIBE AT PUBLICS SCHOOLS ON THE 60 AND WHY WE STILL Essay

WHY RELIGION IS PROHIBE AT PUBLICS SCHOOLS ON THE 60 AND WHY WE STILL NOT TALKING TO RELIGION NOW - Essay Example It is then only a matter of policy that to avoid conflicts each and every religion must be respected not only by the government but with every person. The issue of religion is among the most sensitive of all topics that can be raised in any occasion. Many debates had been started and to no end when such is the subject. Arguments may extend for hours but there is no guarantee that anything will be resolved. Any person’s belief may be as intense or as placid but when it comes to conviction people do not easily bend to the will of others. Religion may also be a source of hatred because of ignorance and worse because of intolerance. After the 9/11 attack there had been reports that mosques of nonviolent Muslims were attacked carelessly with people throwing rocks or vandalizing their premises. For quite some time, the same people were heavily stereotyped as terrorists without any cause or evidence. This further shows that religion is a diverse and sensitive topic that explains why it is considered as somewhat an off topic. In 1960, during John F. Kennedy’s bid for president, religion was the question he dreaded the most to be asked though it was a pressing matter at the time. â€Å"Kennedy pledged unequivocal support for the uniquely American principle of church-state separation, opposed public aid for parochial schools, and opposed an ambassador to the Vatican† (Menendez, 2011). As expected, there was a division of reaction among the people with those who are criticizing his secular view. He insists that he does not want to be voted for solely because of his religion. He maintains that voters should choose him for his credentials and what he can do for the country and not because he is a catholic candidate. Evangelists had been wary of his election that their influence will be affected or even boasting that they could make or break his campaign. In the important case of Engel vs. Vitale, the Supreme Court held that prayer is absolutely prohibit ed before the start of classes though any student may opt to remain silent and not to participate in it. The same was also prohibited regardless of the fact that the mandated prayer is neutral. The prayer approved and recommended by the New York State Board of Regents was to be recited before class. The prayer reads, â€Å"Almighty God, we acknowledge our dependence upon Thee, and we beg Thy blessings upon us, our parents, our teachers and our Country† (Engel vs. Vitale, 1962). This was implemented as a part of their holistic training. Thereafter, parents of ten children opposed the prescribed routine as against the Constitution and their rights. The prayer was deemed by the Court as a religious practice and ordered to refrain from the practice in the public schools. The decision even went so far as to discuss history and cite that it is the similar religious conflicts that compelled the first settlers to leave England for the New World. It is the interference of religion tha t has contributed to the lives of men which needed the monarchy’s approval. â€Å"When the power, prestige and financial support of government is placed behind a particular religious belief, the indirect coercive pressure upon religious minorities to conform to the prevailing officially approved religion is plain† (Engel vs. Vitale, 1962). There had been radical opposing views in this subject throughout the years especially from people belonging to religious groups. Gary Bergel, in a sectarian paper, said â€Å"Think then, what happens to a nation rife with perjury, broken marriage covenants, unforgiveness, cults with demonic covenants, extortion, bribery,

Business Strategy College Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Business Strategy College - Case Study Example The OAG official airline guide data taken from the website www.oag.com shows a startling low cast data. Its study of low cost budget airline data released its report dated September 19, 2007 shows startling facts. The data indicates that that budget airline capacity has doubled in the last four years. The low cost growth of the same industry has increased by twenty percent. The study also shows that Europe, which includes the United Kingdom, is leading the world in the low cost /network balance scheme. Clearly, the OAG data shows a startling low cast data. The same OAG study covers a wide airline passenger seat sector. The study covers eleven million extra seats in over sixty six thousand more flights operated by the low cost sector. The industry shows a year on year increase of twenty four percent and twenty percent respectively. The financial data shows that the 2007 low cost flights comprise a higher sixteen percent of the total available airline seats in Europe for the prior accounting period. The prior period only generated a fourteen percent low cost comparative figure. In addition, the 2007 financial data also shows that twenty percent of the total worldwide airline covers is given to low cost flights. This is higher than the seventeen percent financial data of the prior year, 2006. Evidently, the OAG study covers a wide airline passenger seat sector. ... Three of the major forces in the European, Low -cost, budget airline sector are rivalry among competing sellers in the air travel industry, market attempts of companies in other industries to win customers and the potential entry of new air travel competitors.Rivalry among competing sellers in the air travel industry. There is s strong rivalry among the competing sellers in the low cost budget airline sectors. The air transportation industry is changing fundamentally. Low cost air passenger carriers are now slowly killing the competition. This long term trend has undermined the industry's prior structure, procedures, business models and these changes have consequences for airport access. Airlines and airports now have neither the money nor the appetite for grandiose projects. While massive airport buildings around the world planned many years ago are still being inaugurated. These inaugurated airports include Heathrow airport in London, Suvarnabhumi airport in Bangkok, Barajas airpor t in Madrid, a Singapore airport and a Toronto airport. The current trend in the airline industry is to focus on low -cost airport buildings and facilities. Boston had built a $ 400 million passenger building to Delta air's specifications. It was opened shortly before the airline went bankrupt. As Delta air buckles under the pressure of shrinking its network and services, another competitor must be entertained to take over the leased airport spaces vacated by Delta Air. Low cost airline companies easily fit this description. Undoubtedly, there is strong rivalry among the competing sellers in the low cost budget airline sectors (De Neufville 2006).Market attempts of companies in other

History Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

History - Assignment Example Due to existence of a number of different nations that are considered as world power, conflicts of views became increasingly influential. Once the conflict had been started, the impacts of the WWI to the history of the world became inevitable (Howard, 2003). Included in the said impacts is related to the influential nations and empires of the period. It can be considered that the effects had been negative on their part because two of the imperial powers had lost control and had been divided into smaller territories such as the Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. Except for the rise of the Soviet Union which had been revolutionized, the greater part of the European region had been changed. The said change can also be related to the strengthening of the belief in nationalism as opposed to the imperial leadership that had been the main form of leadership during the said part of history (Howard, 2003). In the social and economic aspects, there are different changes that had occurred due to the WWI. One of the impacts that can be observed is the manner of warfare which significantly improved compared to prior period. There are different repercussions of the said effect which can include the continuous aiming for increasingly powerful weapons, which can still be observed even at present times. Another significant effect not only in the domestic but also in the international arena is the social trauma that commonly occurs in times of wars and conflicts (Howard, 2003). One of the most significant observations with regards to the effect of WWI is the rise to power of the United States on the basis of the economic and trade relations. The effects of such event can be considered as the onset of the power and control being experienced by the US until the present era. This event can be attributed to the fact that new allies and international